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01
Care Association Alliance
Building a National Care Service
A Programme for Reform
Paper01

Adult Social Care
Funding Reform

The case for a national funding settlement.
Authors
Melanie Weatherley MBECo-Chair, Care Association Alliance
Damian GreenSenior Policy Adviser
William WalterLead Author
Tom ZundelSenior Author & Head of Research
Published May 2026
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The Alliance

The national voice for social care providers.

The Care Association Alliance brings together care associations from across England, representing the full breadth of the adult social care sector: residential care, nursing care, home care, and supported living.

9,000
Member organisations across England
All
Major care sectors represented: residential, nursing, home care and supported living
One
Unified voice to Government, Parliament and the Casey Commission

The campaign is supported by the Rt Hon Damian Green MP, former First Secretary of State and de facto Deputy Prime Minister, who held direct responsibility for social care policy in Government.

01
The problem

A model built for a country that no longer exists.

Social care for older people is financed through a model that distributes a national demographic risk across 153 local authority budgets that were never designed to bear it. The result is instability, rationing, and a postcode lottery of access.

153 local authorities. One national risk, split 153 ways, each with different capacity to bear it.
0×
The over-85 population is projected to double within twenty years.
OBR
0.0%
of older people now receive local-authority-funded long-term care.
King’s Fund
£0
Upper capital limit, frozen in cash terms since 2010/11.
Social Care 360
0 in 0
people aged 65 face lifetime care costs above £100,000, with no way to insure.
HoC Committee
02
The evidence

The gap is structural, not temporary.

Meeting demand needs real-terms growth of 3.1% a year. It has had 0.7%. By 2032/33 the shortfall reaches £8.3 billion a year, the cost of simply standing still.

Fig 1LA spending vs the spending needed to meet demand, 2010/11–2032/33
£18£21£24£27£30£3310/1114/1518/1922/2326/2730/3132/33projected£0.0bn (2023/24)£0.0bn needed£0.0bn£0.0bn gap
Sources: Health Foundation REAL Centre; OBR; King’s Fund. Real-terms; projections illustrative.
Fig 2The frozen means test: cash value vs inflation-adjusted
£20k£25k£30k£35k10/1114/1518/1922/2326/27£0 frozen£0 if uprated
Upper capital limit, 2010/11–2026/27. Sources: Social Care 360; IFS.
Fig 4Homecare: what councils pay vs the sustainable minimum
£0£6£12£18£24£30£36Average fee councils pay£0.00/hrMinimum sustainable price£0.00/hr£0.00/hr shortfall
2025/26. Only 1% of contracts meet the minimum. Source: Homecare Association.
03
A postcode lottery

Spend per adult runs from £392 to £960.

Even after adjusting each authority for the age profile of its population, so we compare like with like, spend per resident adult still ranges more than two-to-one between authorities under the same statutory framework, and the widest variation is within regions, not between them.

The two extremesThe highest and lowest spend per adult in England
ENGLAND £636£0WarringtonNorth West · lowest£0KnowsleyNorth West · highest0.00× per adult
Both Warrington and Knowsley sit in the North West: the disparity is not a simple north-south or rich-poor divide.
Age-adjusted spend per adult · every English upper-tier authority, 2024/25
01 / 05
153 authorities

One framework, 153 budgets

Every English upper-tier authority, shaded by spend per adult. Brighter means higher, from £392 to £960.

Spend per adult, age-adjusted
£392£960
The regional picture

Widest within regions; narrow between them.

Fig A.2The widest variation is within regions, not between them
£400£500£600£700£800£900England avg £636North West£392£960WarringtonKnowsleySouth East£507£801London£498£925East of England£454£692North East£540£797East Midlands£426£822Yorks & Humber£542£765South West£513£771West Midlands£516£734
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest age-adjusted spend per adult in the region; the dot is the population-weighted average. The North West alone spans the entire mainland range. Isles of Scilly and the City of London excluded.
Fig A.3Between regions, the gap is modest: just £109
£0£180£360£540£720£0NW£0NE£0Ldn£0Y&H£0WM£0EoE£0SE£0SW£0EMEngland £636
Age-adjusted, population-weighted regional averages, 2024/25. The North West (£688) and East Midlands (£579) are the extremes, a fraction of the £568 gap between individual authorities.
Not just demographics

Need and cost explain less than half of it.

We modelled every authority’s spend against its age profile, deprivation, the local cost of care and the level of working-age need. Together those legitimate drivers leave 55 to 66 per cent of the gap between authorities unexplained. Age on its own explains just 13 per cent. The chart below plots each authority’s actual spend against that prediction; the map then shades each authority by the gap between the two.

Off the lineActual spend vs what need and cost predict
£400£400£500£500£600£600£700£700£800£800£900£900CamdenHaltonLincolnshireWarringtonIf need and cost set spending, everyauthority would sit on the dashed line.Spend predicted by need + cost (£ per adult)Actual spend (£ per adult)
Each dot is one upper-tier authority. The dashed line is spending exactly as its age, deprivation, provider cost and working-age need predict. Blue authorities spend more than predicted, coral less; the vertical scatter is the unexplained gap. OLS, n=151.
The unexplained gapSpending above or below what need and cost predict
well below need+costbelowas predictedabovewell above need+cost
Each authority shaded by its regression residual: blue spends more than its age, deprivation, provider cost and working-age need predict; coral spends less. The scatter has no clean geographic pattern. Individual authorities are less certain than the overall share. OLS, n=151; Isles of Scilly and the City of London excluded.

Explore the full sortable table for every authority →

The hidden bill
Unpaid carers provide support valued at £184 billion a year. Equivalent to a second NHS.
£0bn
Value of unpaid care, a year
0%
Self-funder cross-subsidy
£0.00bn
Delayed-discharge cost to the NHS
04
What we propose

A national funding settlement.

Not a free NHS-style service. Not the absorption of care into the NHS. Not the end of local delivery. A national framework, built on three principles, within which local care can finally work.

Pool the risk

National pooling of financial risk

Demographic change is a national phenomenon. Its fiscal consequences should be managed centrally, not spread across 153 budgets of wildly varying capacity.

Guarantee the right

Statutory entitlement triggered by need

Meet a nationally defined eligibility threshold and you have a legal right to support, wherever you live.

Keep delivery local

Local delivery within a national framework

Care stays commissioned and managed locally, inside a national funding, eligibility and pricing structure. A framework, not a takeover.

To be clear

What this proposal is not.

Free care on NHS lines
Absorbing care into the NHS
Abolishing local government
Removing personal contribution
Centralised care delivery
05
What we are calling for

Ten recommendations.

A blueprint for the Casey Commission.

Tap any recommendation to read it in full
06
What reform costs

Affordable, and cheaper than inaction.

The Health Foundation models three levels of ambition. Even the most modest, simply meeting demand, runs to billions a year. The cost of delay rises faster than the cost of reform.

Fig 3Additional annual funding required by 2032/33, three scenarios
£0bn£4bn£8bn£12bn£16bn£0.0bnMeet demandstanding still£0.0bnImprove access≈1.1m packages£0.0bnCover provider costsfair cost of care
Source: Health Foundation REAL Centre, above baseline.
It has been done before · five countries, one lesson
01 / 05
Scotland

A cautionary tale

Free personal care without a sustained funding settlement proved unstable. Entitlement alone is not enough.

07
An invitation

Your role in Parliament.

We are forming a cross-party working group of MPs and Peers to drive the national care funding agenda from within Parliament, chaired by a Member of Parliament ready to lead one of the most consequential domestic policy campaigns of this Parliament.

Tap each role to read more

This is a genuine opportunity to build a national profile on a domestic policy question that will define social care for a generation.

The call to action

The case for action is clear. The cost of delay is rising. The opportunity to act is now.

The Casey Commission has a clear mandate and the most complete evidence base in a generation. The Care Association Alliance intends to be the voice that speaks from direct experience of what the system actually requires.

Download the full report (PDF) ↓
Paper One · Care Association Alliance · May 2026
About the Alliance

The Care Association Alliance.

The CAA is the national umbrella body for local care associations in England, a member-led organisation with no paid officers. All its functions are carried out by its member associations, which collectively represent over 10,000 independent care providers across every English region.

50+
Local Care Associations
10,000+
Independent Care Providers across England
One
Unified national voice to Government, Parliament and the press

The CAA works locally, regionally and nationally, partnering with government, commissioners and health bodies to advocate for a sustainable, properly funded adult social care system. It is a founding participant in the Care Provider Alliance, which unites the ten main national associations representing independent and voluntary adult social care providers in England.

Globe House, Park Lane, Halesowen, B63 2RA  ·  info@caa.care  ·  www.caa.care